$SPX - Timing Similarities to July/August 2010

This summer, the turn dates for SPX market timing have been similar to the July/August 2010 period.  In 2010, July 1st was a major bottom, and this year there was a major top early July.  In August 2010, a top was formed on the 10th, and this year it was a major bottom.  Many of the smaller tops/bottoms have been following this timing cycle as well.

The end of August 2010 was marked by a bottom, and the kick-off to a powerful (and memorable) rally the first week of September.

This year, the market is rallying approaching month-end, and some choppy trading could be expected this week with a topping formation.  As shown below, the month of August has been sideways trade. 

A decline the first week of September would best fit this timing cycle. 

15min Chart          

$SPX - 10min Update

The geometry charted on the previous 10min chart worked out quite well with a direct hit this morning at the crossing white lines. 

There are several patterns that I am monitoring, and the behaviour of the Financial sector recently provides an important clue about what is coming next.  I am waiting for a further development, and will have specifics shortly.       

10min Chart

$SPX - 10min Chart

The white line shown in the previous August 18th SPX chart did contain and provide support.  It was a decent rally today.  We have seen the back and fill type of weak and choppy trading as was mentioned late last week and early this week. 

On this chart I show a comparison to the Financials index (Rifin in yellow).  The Financials have been weak over the last few trading sessions, and were also underperforming today.  The broader market can rally without Financials, but that is not a rally (or turning point) I can trust for a long period of time.  What it may simply indicate at a minimum is more back and fill action to come later in the week. 

Many of the major banks bottomed on August 8th whereas SPX bottomed on August 9th.  In the last several days many banks for example BAC, C, JPM, GS, MS etc... have traded under the August 8th lows, and are still trading at or near those levels.  This will be monitored closely.

10min Chart

Silver - Pushing Higher

Silver bounced at the Main Red Trendline, and has been pushing higher.  The $45 area was mentioned previously.  Silver topped first in April, and Gold topped after.  This time, I suspect Gold may top first since the roles are reversed and this time Gold is parabolic (as Silver was in April).   

I have a specific topping pattern in mind for Silver.  The geometry will be reviewed with additional detail coming along with an update on symmetry. 

Gold updates will be coming soon as well.     

4hour Chart

$SPX - 30min Chart

The rally was rejected at the lower orange fibonacci fan after trading in that area for a few days.  Several white trendlines have been containing price action. 

30min Chart

$SPX - Big Bounce Update

The market has reached into the minimum target range shown on the previous set of charts.  For the last three trading days, the lower orange fibonacci fan has been tested.

For this week my cycle work is generally positive.  There are some trend lines that could be tested starting at 1216.  For next week, the cycles indicate that chances of a pullback increase.

4hour Chart

$SPX - Big Bounce

The probability for a large bounce seems quite high now. 

30min Chart

I plan to show some more big picture charts soon. 

2day Chart

SPY - Support Lines

The following chart indicates some lines to watch closely over the next few days.  For SPX they rest in the 1,040 to 1,065 range.



2day Chart

$SPX - Week Ahead - Extreme Volatility Likely

A sharp bounce early in the week is likely due to extremely oversold conditions.  Most importantly in the time cycles, August 9-10th are the days to watch closely for a large selloff capitulation.     
Most market participants have failed to consider the consequences of a massive short squeeze.  The wall of worry has been re-established.  More like a Mount Everest of worry.  These sentiments are extremely bullish.

The short squeeze of the century starts this week.  Mark my words: Bet on P3 decline here and the market will take everything you have.  The next major target is SPX 1385+ with new all time highs anticipated.  And then.........

I cannot stress enough - please use caution bears in the upcoming week.  Massive Bear Trap has been set.

The correction is nearly over with the current bull market (bubble) to continue.

30min Chart

SPY found major support Friday on several important trendlines, and fibonacci fan support.  All of which intersect and acted as a "magnet".   

2day Chart

$SPX - Extremely Bullish Cycles Approaching

Certainly it was a strong selloff in the market today, but it was not a crash.  Today, SPX fell 34 points below yesterday's low.  That is not a crash.  There is nothing in the cycles to suggest a crash approaching, and there will not be a crash for the stock market at this time. 

Quite the opposite actually, the cycles are extremely bullish after August 10th.  I have consistently said to expect selling pressure up until about August 10th due to the time cycles.  I have said that this is a massive bear trap, and that analysis stands.  Ideally, I wanted to bring out that analysis nearer to August 10th from a timing perspective, but I decided to show early what the headwind is facing precious metals going forward.  Additionally, I wanted to be clear why it is a mistake to be overly bearish SPX at this time. 

There may be some minimal downside from today's close, but a rally to near SPX 1267 is anticipated next.  Another severe drop is likely from the cycles during the Aug 9th to Aug 11th time period.  It may be a slightly higher or slightly lower low.

Notice the Financials (yellow) continuously outperforming SPX since July 20th.  They are strongly hinting at the coming power rally to NEW HIGHS.

There will be further much more detailed analysis coming this weekend.     

30min Chart

$SPX - Massive Bear Trap

The SPX 1263 target from analysis on Wednesday, July 27th was hit today.  Because it was 1 day later than anticipated, the white line was lower, and the decline was greater.

A bounce to 1295-1305 is targeted for SPX next.  My cycles indicate weakness into August 10th +/- 1 day. That may be a higher low, or Aug 10th may test slightly lower than current levels near approximately 1239.

Most importantly, from my "2007 cycle" analysis, a rally of at least 200 SPX points is anticipated into September.

60min Chart

The following is the "2007 Cycle".  The interpretation is that we are currently at, or near, the green arrow with a massive rally to commence shortly.

6day Chart

The chart for Financials is extremely bullish near term.  The Financials have been outperforming SPX since July 20th, and are only slightly below the July 18th bottom (contrast with the top 60min SPX chart).  The triangle apex, time cycle, and major supports are all indicating a bottom is near for the Financials.  

A serious power rally is about to commence for Financials.

60min Chart

Financials - Higher Lows

Today, Rifin put in a higher high, and higher lows from Friday.  SPX (yellow) in contrast was weaker today.  The fact Financials are firming suggests at least a short term bottom for SPX may be approaching.

Notice also that the Financials are still higher than the July 18th bottom.  This becomes important later on, and I plan to expand on this topic at a later date. 

10min Chart

GDX (Gold Miners) were leading up in July, but have weakened dramatically over the last few days.  This suggests a top may be in, or near for Gold.  I have some larger time frame charts coming for Gold soon. 

15min Chart